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USDCNY Fixing Error Term Widens Slightly, 1-yr MLF Rate Unchanged

CNH

USDCNY fixing printed at 7.1084 versus Bloomberg consensus of7.1659, very close to Friday’s level.

  • The 1-year MLF was unexpectedly left unchanged at 2.5%, whereas a 10bp cut had been expected. There was a cash injection via the 1-year MLF for the 14th straight month of CNY995bn, down from last month.
  • The fixing error term widened moderately to -575pips from -534pips on Friday in USDCNY terms.
  • USDCNH trended higher on Friday to 7.193 but has started the week flat at 7.1868. We did dip to 7.1837 earlier and then spiked to 7.1916. Moves since the MLF announcement have been limited.
  • On Wednesday there is a swathe of activity data including Q4 GDP, December IP, retail sales and jobless rate. Growth is expected to have picked up in the final month/quarter of 2023 with Q4 GDP forecast at 5.3% y/y and December IP at 4.5% but retail sales slowing to 8%.

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