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Free AccessUSDCNY Fixing Error Term Widens Slightly, 1-yr MLF Rate Unchanged
USDCNY fixing printed at 7.1084 versus Bloomberg consensus of7.1659, very close to Friday’s level.
- The 1-year MLF was unexpectedly left unchanged at 2.5%, whereas a 10bp cut had been expected. There was a cash injection via the 1-year MLF for the 14th straight month of CNY995bn, down from last month.
- The fixing error term widened moderately to -575pips from -534pips on Friday in USDCNY terms.
- USDCNH trended higher on Friday to 7.193 but has started the week flat at 7.1868. We did dip to 7.1837 earlier and then spiked to 7.1916. Moves since the MLF announcement have been limited.
- On Wednesday there is a swathe of activity data including Q4 GDP, December IP, retail sales and jobless rate. Growth is expected to have picked up in the final month/quarter of 2023 with Q4 GDP forecast at 5.3% y/y and December IP at 4.5% but retail sales slowing to 8%.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.