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USDMXN Edges Further Away From Moving Averages Breach

MEXICO
  • On Friday, USDMXN made late progress above both 50 and 100-Day moving averages that intersected around the 20.00 mark. The pair rose to the highest level since September 1, extending the advance from last week's lows to just shy of 1%.
  • From the open, the pair has extended this advance to make new highs of 20.1365 amid further greenback strength. Most recently we have dipped back below 20.10, coinciding with a minor downtick in the dollar index with EURUSD encountering 1.1700.
  • 19.80-19.85 remains firm horizontal support and key short-term resistance is unchanged at 20.4564, Aug 20 high.
  • This week the focus for the currency will undoubtedly be the Federal reserve decision/statement, however, Bi-weekly CPI will prove interesting as the next Banxico meeting looms on September 30.
  • Analysts had been tilting towards another rate hike from the bank amid the persistent inflation pressures, however, latest central bank rhetoric from the minutes may have tempered expectations for further tightening and increased the potential for a pause.
  • Risks relating to AMLO's energy initiatives and potential amendments to the constitution may come back into focus, with ongoing USMCA disputes another pipeline headwind for the MXN.
  • Announced on September 14, Banxico plans for an auction of syndicated bonds today.
    • Central Bank will offer up to MXN12.5 billion of 5-year bonds.
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