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USDMXN Edges Lower, Banamex Survey Due

MEXICO
  • Lower core yields are providing a more benign backdrop for the Mexican peso on Tuesday, which has prompted USDMXN to slide back below the 17.00 handle, down 0.4% on the session. Price action narrows the gap with initial support at 16.9118, the Aug 10 low. For now, the primary trend remains bearish and the key bear trigger is at 16.6262, the Jul 28 low.
  • According to UBS Wealth Management, Mexican government local bonds offer value amid “deeply restrictive” interest rates, attractive valuations and light participation from foreign investors. In a report published on Monday, UBS wrote that bonds in the intermediate part of the curve are the most attractive. They also see the Mexican peso on a gradual weakening trend, though the currency should remain “well behaved”.
    • Forecasts for USDMXN include 17.50 at year-end, 17.75 for the first quarter of 2024, 18 by mid 2024 and 18.2 for Q3 2024.
  • Today, the central bank reports international reserves at 1600BST/1000ET for the week ended Aug. 18. International reserves were $203.9b the previous week.
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