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PHP: USD/PHP YTD Lows Holding For Now, Despite Surprise BSP Hold

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EM BulletPhilippinesBulletAPACEmerging Market News

USD/PHP is has fallen in the first part of Friday trade. We were last close to 57.85/90, up around 0.30% in PHP terms. This puts us back close to Jan lows (57.80). Further south we have the 200-day EMA (close to 57.74), a support point we haven't traded below since early Oct 2024. On the topside, the 100-day EMA is back near 58.10. See the chart below. 

  • So far today PHP gains have been outpaced by THB and MYR, both up over 0.40%. These trends are likely to reflect softer USD index levels post onshore closes yesterday. Lower US yields as the PPI print was digested, along with relief on no imminent reciprocal tariffs weighed on the USD.
  • In the past week, PHP is mid-range relative to the rest of USD/Asia, up a modest 0.25%. SGD is the best performer up 0.80%, IDR the worst at down 0.50% (although the rupiah is likely to play catch up today).
  • Yesterday's surprise BSP hold is likely benefiting the PHP, although Governor Remolona has stated this morning that the central bank is still on an easing cycle.
  • The local data calendar is quiet until next week, when Dec remittances are due. 

Fig 1: USD/PHP Close To YTD Lows 

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USD/PHP is has fallen in the first part of Friday trade. We were last close to 57.85/90, up around 0.30% in PHP terms. This puts us back close to Jan lows (57.80). Further south we have the 200-day EMA (close to 57.74), a support point we haven't traded below since early Oct 2024. On the topside, the 100-day EMA is back near 58.10. See the chart below. 

  • So far today PHP gains have been outpaced by THB and MYR, both up over 0.40%. These trends are likely to reflect softer USD index levels post onshore closes yesterday. Lower US yields as the PPI print was digested, along with relief on no imminent reciprocal tariffs weighed on the USD.
  • In the past week, PHP is mid-range relative to the rest of USD/Asia, up a modest 0.25%. SGD is the best performer up 0.80%, IDR the worst at down 0.50% (although the rupiah is likely to play catch up today).
  • Yesterday's surprise BSP hold is likely benefiting the PHP, although Governor Remolona has stated this morning that the central bank is still on an easing cycle.
  • The local data calendar is quiet until next week, when Dec remittances are due. 

Fig 1: USD/PHP Close To YTD Lows 

Keep reading...Show less