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SGD: USD/SG Wedged Between 20 & 50-day EMAs, Inflation Tomorrow, MAS Friday

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SingaporeEM BulletBulletAPACEmerging Market News

USD/SGD is currently wedged between its 20-day and 50-day EMAs. In recent session we have tested sub the 50-day EMA (1.3530), but dips have been supported so far. The 20-day EMA is at 1.3623 on the upside. Current spots levels are 1.3550/55, with SGD off around 0.15% so far today.  This is in line with broader USD shifts, as the dollar stays modestly firmer post further Trump tariff threats (including China with a possible 10% tariff). 

  • USD/SGD is likely to remain at the whim of broader USD sentiment shifts and tariff headlines in the near term.
  • We do have the MAS meeting on Friday. A Rtrs poll had surveyed economists split on whether we see a policy easing. "Six economists anticipate that MAS will loosen its policy, while the other half expect no changes." (MT Newswires/BBG).
  • Market expectations have shifted more towards easing risks, per the Goldman Sachs SGD NEER estimate. We were last -1.30% from the top end of the band. This is in from earlier extremes a little beyond -1.8%, but for much of 2024 we stayed closer to the top end of the band.
  • Local inflation pressures have come down quickly, headline back to 1.6% y/y for Nov last year, core to 1.9% y/y. Note we get Dec inflation data tomorrow ahead of the MAS outcome on Friday. The market expects a further downtick in y/y inflation momentum. 
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USD/SGD is currently wedged between its 20-day and 50-day EMAs. In recent session we have tested sub the 50-day EMA (1.3530), but dips have been supported so far. The 20-day EMA is at 1.3623 on the upside. Current spots levels are 1.3550/55, with SGD off around 0.15% so far today.  This is in line with broader USD shifts, as the dollar stays modestly firmer post further Trump tariff threats (including China with a possible 10% tariff). 

  • USD/SGD is likely to remain at the whim of broader USD sentiment shifts and tariff headlines in the near term.
  • We do have the MAS meeting on Friday. A Rtrs poll had surveyed economists split on whether we see a policy easing. "Six economists anticipate that MAS will loosen its policy, while the other half expect no changes." (MT Newswires/BBG).
  • Market expectations have shifted more towards easing risks, per the Goldman Sachs SGD NEER estimate. We were last -1.30% from the top end of the band. This is in from earlier extremes a little beyond -1.8%, but for much of 2024 we stayed closer to the top end of the band.
  • Local inflation pressures have come down quickly, headline back to 1.6% y/y for Nov last year, core to 1.9% y/y. Note we get Dec inflation data tomorrow ahead of the MAS outcome on Friday. The market expects a further downtick in y/y inflation momentum.