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USDTRY Breaks Above 18 Level Following CBRT Cut

TURKEY
  • Selling pressure on TRY is surging following the CBRT surprising decision to cut its 1W repo rate by 100bps to 13% today.
  • USDTRY broke above the 18 psychological resistance following the decision; next key level to watch on the topside stands at 18.3630 (20 Dec 2021 high).
  • CBRT mentioned that financial conditions need to be supportive given the poor macro outlook.
  • This goes against the 'Lira-ization' strategy as it pushes real yields to deeper negative territory, therefore could continue to weigh on the TRY in the medium term.

Link to statement:

https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN...

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  • Selling pressure on TRY is surging following the CBRT surprising decision to cut its 1W repo rate by 100bps to 13% today.
  • USDTRY broke above the 18 psychological resistance following the decision; next key level to watch on the topside stands at 18.3630 (20 Dec 2021 high).
  • CBRT mentioned that financial conditions need to be supportive given the poor macro outlook.
  • This goes against the 'Lira-ization' strategy as it pushes real yields to deeper negative territory, therefore could continue to weigh on the TRY in the medium term.

Link to statement:

https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN...