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USDZAR Finds Resistance At its 200DMA

SOUTH AFRICA
  • USDZAR retraced sharply higher yesterday, partly driven by a broad USD strength with the rand potentially also impacted by the recent flooding in and around Durban.
  • Interestingly, the slight decrease in price volatility (VIX) in recent days did not generate some support for 'risk on ZAR' , which has historically performed well when price volatility falls.
  • The pair found resistance at its 200DMA (15.1020) earlier after soaring by over 50 figures since the stat of the week.
    • The 15.1020 level also represents the high of its LT downward trending channel.
  • Momentum still looks bearish in the near term, with the rand continuing to be mainly supported by elevated real yields and record current account surpluses.
  • However, a break above 15.1020 may change the technical ST outlook. Next resistance to watch above that stands at 15.2380, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibo retracement of the 13.4120 – 16.3670 range.
  • On the downside, first support to watch stand at 14.93 (50DMA), followed by 14.89 (50% retracement).

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