US DATA
JOLTS openings were lower than expected in December after an upward revised November, whilst quits rates were little changed but after an upward revised November. Both the vacancy to unemployed ratio and quits rates have broadly stabilized since June, with quits in particular on the lower side historically.
- JOLTS openings were lower than expected in Dec at 7.6m (cons 8.00m) after an upward revised 8.156m (initial 8.098m) in Nov.
- Ratio to unemployed: 1.10 after 1.15 (initial 1.14). It has averaged 1.1 since June, recently seeing a low of 1.07 in September. The ratio on the month was biased higher by the already known sharp -235k drop in unemployment back in Dec.
- It clearly remains low by recent standards, below the 1.19 seen in 2019 although is still elevated vs pre-pandemic years such as the 1.00 averaged in 2017-18.
- Quits rate at 2.00% after an upward revised 1.97% (initial 1.92). Just like the vacancy to unemployed ratio has stabilized since June, the quits rate has averaged 2.0% over that period.
- Its most recent high was 2.06% back in Oct after a rare rounded increase but these are still low levels historically, having averaged 2.33 in 2019 and 2.20 in 2017-18.
- The private quits rate sees a similar trend, at 2.21% after 2.17% (initial 2.12%).
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