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STIR: Vague Reciprocal Tariffs Plan Sees Delay Of Near-Term EU Growth Hit

STIR
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  • European implied yields are modestly higher since the lack of specific details around Trump’s reciprocal tariffs plan and Lutnick’s Commerce Dept conducting studies to report back in April, with the latter confirming a timeline reported by CNBC beforehand.
  • The reduction in a very near-term downside growth risk for the EU sees Euribor implied yields some 2-3bp higher since levels around yesterday’s close prior to Trump’s announcement, in contrast to SOFR yields flat to marginally lower.
  • It’s helped the Euribor implied terminal yield tick up to 2.00% for some of its highest levels since the Jan 30 ECB meeting.
  • Whilst it’s clearly not a direct read on ECB pricing, it sits firmly within the estimated (but regularly downplayed by senior ECB officials) neutral rate range of 1.75-2.25%. 
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  • European implied yields are modestly higher since the lack of specific details around Trump’s reciprocal tariffs plan and Lutnick’s Commerce Dept conducting studies to report back in April, with the latter confirming a timeline reported by CNBC beforehand.
  • The reduction in a very near-term downside growth risk for the EU sees Euribor implied yields some 2-3bp higher since levels around yesterday’s close prior to Trump’s announcement, in contrast to SOFR yields flat to marginally lower.
  • It’s helped the Euribor implied terminal yield tick up to 2.00% for some of its highest levels since the Jan 30 ECB meeting.
  • Whilst it’s clearly not a direct read on ECB pricing, it sits firmly within the estimated (but regularly downplayed by senior ECB officials) neutral rate range of 1.75-2.25%. 
image