EU
Speaking at a debate among European Commission presidential candidates on the evening of 29 April, incumbent President Ursula von der Leyen didnot rule out relying on support from right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) MEPs to secure a second term. Asked about the various groups she would or would not work with, VdL stated that it “depends very much on how the composition of the Parliament is, and who is in what group,”.
- Brussels-based journalist Dave Keating posted on X that VdL, "...ruled out allying with: Marine Le Pen, Geert Wilders, Matteo Salvini, AfD, Vlaams Belang. But did not rule out allying with: Giorgia Meloni, Vox, True Finns, Sweden Democrats, NVA, PiS." This would indicate an acceptance of working with the ECR, seen as a social conservative, soft eurosceptic group, but not the Identity and Democracy (ID) group, seen as containing far-right nationalists and hard eurosceptics.
- Nevertheless, by not immediately shutting down the prospect of relying on ECR votes VdL - hailing from the centre-right European People's Party (EPP) - has left herself vulnerable to the other 'mainstream' blocs - the centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and the liberal Renew Europe (RE) - withdrawing their support should the EPP remain the largest group post-election. In 2019, VdL needed the support of EPP, S&D and RE MEPs to narrowly cross the majorty threshold.
Chart 1. Projection of European Parliament Groups Based on Opinion Polling, Seats and Change (+/-)
Souce: EU Observer, E-M Analytics.
262 words