Venezuela/Guyana Foreign Ministers Meet In Brazil To Dial Down Tensions

A meeting between Venezuelan foreign minister, Yvan Gil, and Guyanese foreign minister, Hugh Hilton Todd - designed to dial back tension over the disputed Essequibo territory - is underway in Brazil. The meeting is being mediated by Brazil Foreign Affairs Minister Mauro Vieira.

• Bloomberg reports: "No major breakthrough is expected [but] Brazil’s foreign ministry said the meeting was proof of each nation’s adherence [to] a December agreement in which they pledged to continue talks and avoid the use of arms."
• Americas Quarterly notes that any substantive agreement, likely to come at an upcoming meeting between Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro and Guyanese President Irfaan Ali, is unlikely permanently resolve the dispute: "The two countries’ leaders agreed to try to reduce tensions, but some expect Venezuela will be tempted to reassert its claims as revenues from the disputed region grow larger in coming years."
• The dispute over Essequibo is one of several ongoing issues which may compel the reapplication of US sanctions on the Venezuelan oil sector.
• On January 23, the US State Department issued a statement condemning the politically motivated arrest of 33 Venezuelans, saying the arrests, "run contrary to the spirit" of the Barbados (October 2023) agreement but refrained from reapplying sanctions which were relaxed after the Barbados talks.
• The most significant upcoming deadline is April 18. If Maduro's government fail's to sufficiently demonstrate improved electoral condition by then, the US is likely to return much of the previous sanctions regime.