Verdict In PM Srettha's Ethics Case Expected At 09:00BST/15:00ICT

The Constitutional Court is set to announce its verdict in an ethics case brought against Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin by a group of 40 now ex-Senators earlier this year, which could potentially result in his immediate ouster. The verdict will be unveiled at 09:00BST/15:00ICT.

• The PM has been accused of appointing Pichit Chuenban to a cabinet position despite his brief imprisonment in 2008. Pichit has been asked to resign since, while the government brought in Wissanu Krea-ngam, an ex-PM and one of the top legal experts in the country, allegedly to help prepare his defence.
• If Srettha is ordered to step down, the government would be dissolved and parliament would have to elect a new PM out of the candidates proposed at the last election (see below). A caretaker government would run the country in the interim.
• In case of the ruling Pheu Thai Party (PTP), this means Paethongtarn Shinawatra or Chaikasem Nitisiri. Political analyst Ken Mathis Lohatepanont writes that the former is "usually judged as too green" and the latter as "too sickly." It is unclear whether Srettha could be renominated and it may depend on the court's ruling.
• Several local political observers told the Bangkok Post that "Srettha is expected to survive" the case. If this comes to fruition, there is an expectation that he will soon reshuffle his cabinet. This comes amid ongoing tensions between Srettha and around 13 Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) MPs associated with Prawit Wongsuwon, who reportedly has prime ministerial ambitions.
• There is speculation that if Srettha manages to drive a wedge between PPRP factions and remove covert rebels from the coalition, he might then try to engage with the Democrat Party (DP) to boost parliamentary support for his government, something which he had been ruling out just a few months ago.
• The past couple of months have seen Thailand go through a period of political turbulence weighing on investor confidence, with several key legal cases finding their resolution. Against this backdrop, last week the Constitutional Court dissolved the main opposition Move Forward Party (MFP), the largest party in Thai parliament.