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RBNZ: VIEW: ANZ write "the RBNZ employed a considerably more dovish tone around
the outlook. Risks around their most recent projections have moved from
"balanced" to "tilted to the downside". The Committee "agreed that more support
from monetary policy was likely to be necessary." We are bringing forward our
forecast OCR cuts to August & November. The Committee highlighted increasing
downside global risks, while acknowledging that the local data had been mixed.
The RBNZ concluded that "a lower OCR may be needed over time". There was no
urgency for the Reserve Bank to cut the OCR again immediately. The economy has
indeed slowed considerably, but the most forward-looking indicators - and looser
financial conditions - suggest a recovery in the second half of the year. The
global slowdown is real, but the pass-through into the New Zealand economy has
been muted so far - and there are reasons to think commodity prices may continue
to be resilient. The labour market is still tight (though employment fell in
Q1), and inflation is still trending up, albeit too slowly for the Reserve
Bank's liking. All that said, the downside risks are clear. The RBNZ identified
several, and we agree with them"