MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY90.3 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CPI +0.3% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

VIEW: CBA Expects 0.9% CPI Rise, Risks Skewed To Upside

AUSTRALIA DATA

Q3 CPI data is released on Wednesday and will be an important input into the RBA’s November decision. CBA is expecting headline to print lower than the Bloomberg consensus and for core to be in line.

  • CBA is forecasting a 0.9% q/q rise in Q3 CPI bringing annual inflation down to 5.1% from 6%. They observe that this “represents a substantial easing” in prices, but “the risks to our inflation forecast skew to the upside” due to July/August CPI reads and services.
  • It expects underlying inflation to rise 1% q/q but “base effects from a year ago mean that the annual rate on our forecasts will decline to 4.9%.”
  • “Higher oil prices (up by around 11% over the last two months of the September quarter) mechanically adds to the CPI figure via the impact on automotive fuel, which accounts for about 3½% of the CPI basket, and indirectly through increased freight and other costs for businesses,” CBA observes.
  • CBA notes “our forecast for Q3 23 CPI is broadly similar to the RBA’s implied profile from August.We believe this is consistent with monetary policy on hold in November.” But given the upside risks to its CPI forecast, it estimates a 40% chance of a 25bp November hike.
  • See report here.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.