CANADA JUNE JOBS -1.4K VS FORECAST +20K, PRIOR +26.7K

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, July 5

MNI BRIEF: PBOC Plans To Borrow Hundred Bln Yuan CGB - Press

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CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

MNI: BLS: NET PAYROLLS REVISIONS FOR MAY, APRIL -111K

US JUN AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS +0.3% Vs MAY +0.4%; +3.9% YOY

US JUN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.1%

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VIEW CHANGE: Barclays no longer expect June cut

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  • "The upside surprise relative to our forecast came entirely from services inflation... Across services categories, the miss relative to our forecast was broad-based and difficult to attribute to any one-off indexation effect, although there is some suggestion looking at the wage sensitivity of sectors that part of the strength may relate to greater National Living Wage pass-through than we had expected."
  • "Given the extent and broad nature of the miss, we think it is now unlikely that a majority of the MPC will have sufficient confidence in the disinflationary process to cut Bank Rate in June. For now, we leave the pace of our expected cuts thereafter unchanged but under review (three 25bp moves in 2024), with the data on UK activity later this week (PMIs and retail sales) important inputs into our considerations."
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  • "The upside surprise relative to our forecast came entirely from services inflation... Across services categories, the miss relative to our forecast was broad-based and difficult to attribute to any one-off indexation effect, although there is some suggestion looking at the wage sensitivity of sectors that part of the strength may relate to greater National Living Wage pass-through than we had expected."
  • "Given the extent and broad nature of the miss, we think it is now unlikely that a majority of the MPC will have sufficient confidence in the disinflationary process to cut Bank Rate in June. For now, we leave the pace of our expected cuts thereafter unchanged but under review (three 25bp moves in 2024), with the data on UK activity later this week (PMIs and retail sales) important inputs into our considerations."