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VIEW CHANGE: MS look for first cut in June

BOE
  • Morgan Stanley has pushed back its expectation of the first cut from May to June noting that "a lot of factors piled up in recent weeks – our US colleagues shifted their Fed cut call from June to July; geopolitical tensions imply higher uncertainty; and the UK data were soft – but not quite as soft as we had expected."
  • "We see the first cut in June, with May setting up June action if pay and inflation data come in line with the BoE's forecasts."
  • MS now looks for 75bps of cuts this year (June, August, November) to 4.50% (previously 4.25%) before beginning sequential cuts between February 2025 and August 2025 to a terminal 3.25% (previously 2.50% by Q4-25).
  • "After the first pair of cuts, we see the BoE wanting to move to a more gradual pace of cutting, as it assesses the impact of its actions on the economy. As the BoE gains confidence that 2%Y core can be sustainably attained over 2025, we see it cutting towards 3.25% at successive meetings"
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