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View Change: MS looks for 75bp in Nov and 50bp in Dec; terminal 4.00%

BOE
  • We "change our BoE call to a 75bp hike in November, and a 50bp hike in December – 50bp of additional tightening, leaving the terminal rate at 4.0% in March 2023". (MS looks for 25bp hikes in February and March).
  • MS had previously expected a 50bp hike in November and 25bp hike in December.
  • "The 'ratchet effect' of stepping up the pace of tightening means that risks are skewed towards two 75bp moves. For now, we think that soft growth data and gradual signs of slackening in the labour market will leave the 75bp move in November as a one-off."
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  • We "change our BoE call to a 75bp hike in November, and a 50bp hike in December – 50bp of additional tightening, leaving the terminal rate at 4.0% in March 2023". (MS looks for 25bp hikes in February and March).
  • MS had previously expected a 50bp hike in November and 25bp hike in December.
  • "The 'ratchet effect' of stepping up the pace of tightening means that risks are skewed towards two 75bp moves. For now, we think that soft growth data and gradual signs of slackening in the labour market will leave the 75bp move in November as a one-off."