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Free AccessView Change: MS looks for 75bp in Nov and 50bp in Dec; terminal 4.00%
- We "change our BoE call to a 75bp hike in November, and a 50bp hike in December – 50bp of additional tightening, leaving the terminal rate at 4.0% in March 2023". (MS looks for 25bp hikes in February and March).
- MS had previously expected a 50bp hike in November and 25bp hike in December.
- "The 'ratchet effect' of stepping up the pace of tightening means that risks are skewed towards two 75bp moves. For now, we think that soft growth data and gradual signs of slackening in the labour market will leave the 75bp move in November as a one-off."
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.