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VIEW CHANGE: Nomura See Terminal Rate at 4.50%

NORGES BANK

Nomura revise up their Norges Bank terminal rate view to 4.50% (from 3.75% previously) after this week's rate decision. They write that:

  • Now expect three more 25bp hikes – with two at the August and September meetings and one at either the November or December meetings.
  • They lean towards November as December is an MPR meeting so Norges Bank can set out the framework for a halt to further hikes.
  • They see the labour market remaining very tight and leading indicators (notably the PMIs) suggest it is likely to stay this way. Norges Bank survey workers expect 4.2% wage growth over the next year. This raises the risk of a wage-price spiral.
  • Inflation expectations are not well-anchored at 2% in the medium-term and is still someway off returning to ‘normal’ levels.
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