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VIEW CHANGE: SocGen: Two more 25bp hikes before inflation tiger is tamed

BOE
  • “The MPC emphasises that much of the impact of the tightening to date is yet to be felt... That argues against overkill but the MPC clearly has heightened concerns that it is still behind the curve.”
  • “We expect another hike, but of 25bp, in August followed by a final hike of 25bp in September to reach a peak of 5.5%. Thereafter, softening data are likely to convince the MPC that it has done enough to tame the inflation tiger.”
  • After delivering the September hike, “the guidance is then likely to state strongly that its work might be done. It has been spooked by the succession of bad inflation surprises but it still argues for caution – there is a lot more pain still to come as a result of the policy actions it has already taken That will bear down on inflation pressures.”
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