Free Trial

VIEW: J.P.Morgan Mark Down ’22 GDP Growth Expectations

CHINA

Monday saw J.P.Morgan revise down their full-year China GDP growth forecast “from 4.3% to 3.7%. The new forecast assumes a deeper contraction in the current quarter to -5.4% Q/Q saar (previously: -1.5%), followed by a stronger recovery in Q3 at +7.5% Q/Q saar (previously: +4.9%).”

  • “Uncertainties related to economic forecasts are high as: (i) implementation of zero-COVID policy remains the biggest uncertainty, including the risk of prolonged disruption of economic activity and the risk of recurring Omicron waves; and (ii) the government may introduce additional policy stimulus within the next few months, e.g., supplementary fiscal, fiscal transfer to households or more aggressive housing policy relaxation.”
  • “Investors’ assessment of the economic outlook is biased to the bearish side, for two important reasons: (i) the “data-smoothing” practice and concerns about quality of the NBS statistics; and (ii) a larger component of “unproductive GDP” related to the cost of zero-COVID policy implementation, which tends to increase the economic/operational costs of business activities.”
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.