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VIEW: RBA Watcher Expects Rates On Hold In November

RBA

RBA watcher McCrann wrote in The Australian that he doesn’t think that Q3 inflation was high enough to prompt the RBA to hike rates on November 7. He wrote the RBA “will almost certainly leave its official interest rate unchanged at its Cup Day meeting”. He has a number of reasons for this view.

  • The annualised rate indicates that inflation should continue to slow.
  • Most of the pickup in Q3 headline was due to higher petrol and gas prices driven by global factors.
  • There is a lot of uncertainty both globally and domestically and so a hike can be delayed to December or February.
  • McCrann doesn’t believe the 1.2% q/q rise in the CPI will make a major change to the RBA’s inflation outlook.
    - The Australian

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