VIEW: RBC note that "as we highlighted last.....>

RBA: VIEW: RBC note that "as we highlighted last week, the odds of a Q1 cut were

already sharply reduced after last week's labour force . While today's data

suggest that the inflation pulse remains too weak, there are hints of stability,

and we note that annual Q1 inflation (due late April) is set to benefit from

some base effect (low Q1 2019), with both headline and core measures likely to

lift modestly. The case to cut further from here needs to be more compelling as

we approach the effective lower bound. We push our Q1 cut into Q2, with a

preference for June. However, all meetings are likely to be live in the quarter

although the RBA may well need more than a couple of months of data including

January/February retail, trade, tourism, and employment which begin from

mid-March. It may also prefer to avoid May, if possible, ahead of the 2020-21

Budget given the Governor's relatively vocal plea for other policy levers to be

pulled. The hurdle to cut further from here and edge closer to alternative

measures is high. We remain with a terminal cash rate of 0.25% and start of QE

in Q1 2021."