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RBA: VIEW: RBC note that "as we highlighted last week, the odds of a Q1 cut were
already sharply reduced after last week's labour force . While today's data
suggest that the inflation pulse remains too weak, there are hints of stability,
and we note that annual Q1 inflation (due late April) is set to benefit from
some base effect (low Q1 2019), with both headline and core measures likely to
lift modestly. The case to cut further from here needs to be more compelling as
we approach the effective lower bound. We push our Q1 cut into Q2, with a
preference for June. However, all meetings are likely to be live in the quarter
although the RBA may well need more than a couple of months of data including
January/February retail, trade, tourism, and employment which begin from
mid-March. It may also prefer to avoid May, if possible, ahead of the 2020-21
Budget given the Governor's relatively vocal plea for other policy levers to be
pulled. The hurdle to cut further from here and edge closer to alternative
measures is high. We remain with a terminal cash rate of 0.25% and start of QE
in Q1 2021."