VIEW: Select Analyst Views For CPI

CPI inflation for December hits tomorrow at 0830ET. The analysts below expect a solid decline in headline CPI but for more resilient core inflation, at least on the month. For comparison, Bloomberg consensus sees headline at 6.4% Y/Y (-0.4pp) and average median/trim inflation dipping a tenth.

• CIBC: A sharp decline in gasoline prices will be the main factor behind an expected -0.6% M/M drop in headline CPI and 6.3% Y/Y (-0.5pp). With inflation in food and other goods prices expected to ease shortly, and services inflation starting to decelerate as the economy slows, we should see much more muted inflationary pressures by early summer.
• Scotia: Estimating a -0.7% M/M headline print or -0.4% M/M in SA terms, with the year-ago rate at 6.2% Y/Y (-0.6pp) for the softest since Feb. Traditional core CPI (ex-food and energy) is likely to prove firmer, potentially with a mild up-tick in M/M terms and a slight cooling from 5.4% Y/Y.
• TD: We look for headline CPI to slow to 6.4% Y/Y in Dec (-0.4pp) as a sharp drop in energy prices drives a 0.5% M/M. Clothing will also weigh on the headline print, while food prices, rents, and mortgage interest provide a source of strength. CPI-trim/median projected to edge lower to 5.1% Y/Y from record highs.