Volatile TTF as Tight Supply Offset by Weak Demand

TTF markets are easing lower with front month bouncing between about 31.7€/MWh and 35.1€/MWh in the last few days with Norway maintenance, LNG competition from Asia and warm weather weighed against healthy storage and low demand.

• TTF AUG 23 down -2.9% at 34.31€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -2% at 49.33€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -1.4% at 49.45€/MWh
• Temperatures in NW and central Europe are forecast to hold near normal in the next few days before increasing back above normal from about 5 July.
• Pipeline imports from Norway are today at 234.4mcm/d amid ongoing field and processing plant outages continuing into July.
• European LNG sendout has averaged around 360mcm/d in the last week with imports to NW Europe still just above the flows seen this time last year despite the drop in June. Maintenance works are reducing sendout from Montoir LNG and Fos Tonkin LNG until 2 July.
• Total European storage remains on track to refill to the EU target level before the end of the summer despite below normal injection rates. Gas in store was up to 76.86% full on 28 June according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 61.0%.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today at 41.7mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 64.9mcm/d.