Volatile TTF Trading Back Near Flat on the Day

TTF front month is back down near flat on the day after the initial surge higher to just over 36.9€/MWh this morning with supply risks continuing to drive market volatility. The short lived unrest in Russia over the weekend didn’t cause any changes in flows but the supply risk added to a drop in LNG imports and ongoing restricted pipeline supplies from Norway to push prices higher.

• LNG imports into the two Dutch terminal are largely unchanged from last month but supplies into the UK have slumped with just 5 so far this month compared to 27 last month according to Bloomberg.
• Total imports to NW European LNG terminals are expected to be around 59 this month compared to 88 last month. Another 13 vessels are currently scheduled into NW Europe in the first couple of weeks of July.
• The JKM-TTF spread is back up to +1.5$/mmbtu after a dip lower this morning. The US netback to Europe for August was estimated at 7.55$/mmbtu and to Asia at 7.69$/mmbtu according to Bloomberg before the TTF open today.
  • TTF JUL 23 up 0.1% at 32.55€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 23 up 0.1% at 49.93€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 24 up 0.8% at 49.87€/MWh