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Volatility In The Bond Market On The Rise (Again)

HUNGARY
  • Last week, economic data showed that Hungary May CPI came in slightly lower than expected at 5.1% (vs. 5.3% exp.), leading to more hawkish tone from NBH policymaker.
  • On Monday, NBH policymaker Pleschinger said in an interview that NBH is now likely to raise rates once a quarter as inflationary pressures have been intensifying in recent month, which should balance CPI and GDP risks.
  • Despite NBH members recent 'hawkish' tone, there has been some aggressive selling pressure on HUF, implying that traders continue to take profit following strong momentum in April and May.
  • USDHUF ticks lower this morning after finding a local high of 291 yesterday; next resistance to watch above that stands at 293 (50D SMA). On the downside, first support stands at 283, followed by 280.
  • Hungary 10Y yield has been retracing sharply higher this week after failing to break below its 100D SMA on Friday, breaking above its 50D SMA at 2.83%; key ST resistance on the topside stands at 3%. On the downside, first support to watch stands at 2.60%.
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