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Volumes Pick Up Across GBP, JPY and CNY Futures

FOREX
  • Contrasting with much of the rest of this week, currency futures volumes are seeing patches of activity Thursday, with JPY and GBP futures seeing above-average cumulative daily volumes. Both currencies saw spikes of interest after interjections and comments on policy from BoJ’s Ueda and BoE’s Pill respectively, while CNY futures see solid interest following the mixed CPI and PPI readings overnight.
  • G10 FX options markets are seeing notably less interest, as total notional traded sits well below average. Nonetheless, overnight USD vol markets have seen some support ahead of the Powell and Barkin appearances later today, and the prelim UMich sentiment survey released alongside Friday’s NY cut.
  • Markets expect the 1y inflation expectation component for UMich to moderate back to 4.0% after the final October release moved markets after surprisingly being revised higher (to 4.2% from 3.8%). The rising year-ahead inflation expectation came despite pump prices posting an extended decline across the month, with survey respondents potentially reacting to the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas conflict and union strike action for the read-through for price rises ahead.

Figure 1: Futures volumes show pockets of activity in GBP, JPY and CNY


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