Wagner Mutiny Leaves Putin In Weakened Position

While the lasting impact of the mutiny by the Wagner military group on 24 June remains to be seen, one clear-cut outcome has been a puncturing of the image of invulnerability that had surrounded President Vladimir Putin. With the returning of the Wagner troops to their barracks and their leader Yevgeny Prigozhin's 'exile' to Belarus as part of a deal brokered by President Alexander Lukashenko, the immediate-term risk to the stability of the Russian state appears to have receded. However, the short-to-medium term outlook becomes much more uncertain.

• For his key power base of wealthy elites and senior military officials, the putsch will have shown that the president does not command absolute control over the Russian Federation. This could see pressure applied on Putin to step aside at the 2024 presidential election mount where previously no pressure had existed before.
• So far, Putin has refused Prigozhin's key demand of replacing Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov. However, this does not mean that the military leadership could not be subject to a reshuffle in the near future, especially if the Ukrainian counteroffensive gains steam.
• Broader security concerns are likely to rise. There is no guarantee that should Putin be ousted that his replacement would be more moderate. Putin has - so far - refrained from using nuclear or chemical weapons in the war on Ukraine but a more hard-line nationalist leader could step over these red lines, risking direct NATO-Russia contact.