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Waller Watched Along With 20Y Supply After Renewed Flattening

US TSYS
  • Treasuries have bear flattened overnight, extending yesterday’s flattening in a move that continued after stronger than expected retail sales.
  • The front end is pushing new lows, back through short-lived levels seen initially after a beat for UK CPI inflation but still within the week’s range.
  • The longer end meanwhile remains near yesterday’s highs whilst equities are under tech-related pressure today, but with the 20Y re-open still to come after last week’s 30Y saw a sizeable 2.1bp tail.
  • Cash yields sit 0.2bp (30s) to 4.2bps (2s) higher. The 2YY at 4.46% remains below the ~4.50% seen after sliding on last week’s softer than expected US CPI report.
  • Curves pull further back from recent multi-month highs, with 2s10s at -28.4bps and 2s30s at -8.5bps after Monday’s +1.7bps saw the first positive slope since January.
  • TYU4 is at 111-08 (- 02+) on solid volumes of 350k. The trend structure remains bullish with resistance at 111-13+ (Jul 16 high) closely followed by 111-17+ (Fibo projection of Apr 25 May 16-29 price swing).
  • Data: MBA mortgage data Jul 12 (0700ET), Building permits/housing starts Jun (0830ET), IP/Cap util (0915ET)
  • Fedspeak: Barkin (0900ET), Waller (0935ET) and Fed’s Beige Book (1400ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $13B 20Y Bond reopen - 912810UB2 (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $60B 17W bill suction (1130ET)
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