Watch For Pandemic Risk Assessment In Statement

A few things to watch for in the FOMC statement at 1400ET. Here's the previous statement.

• 'No change' to the statement would be marginally dovish on balance. Very doubtful there'll be any change to the "meat" of the statement, including forward guidance.
• But expect at least some acknowledgement of strong recent economic data (incl payrolls), though that sort of marking-to-market isn't usually very impactful as it's basically backward-looking. Referrring to indicators of employment / econ activity turning up e.g. "sharply" could be marginally more hawkish.
• The most "realistic" hawkish shift would be changing / eliminating the reference to the pandemic posing "considerable risks" to the outlook.
• Less realistic - but more hawkish - would be a nod to some progress in the recovery indicating that the FOMC sees the economy "on track" toward the "substantial further progress" criteria for taper.
• Also of possible note is the description of inflation "continues to run below 2 percent" which could change to acknowledge that the March CPI print was 2.6%. But this is very likely to be tempered by the language we've heard over and over from FOMC officials that a sharp rise in inflation in coming months is seen as transitory.
• Probable URL for the April FOMC statement at this link (would only go live at 1400ET)