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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
- Today’s PCE report for June at 0830ET headlines the docket.
- Bloomberg consensus sees core PCE inflation at 0.2% M/M in a close call with 0.1 (average 0.15). Indeed, the unrounded estimates we’d seen after CPI and PPI estimates had averaged 0.17% M/M.
- Those are now a little stale after yesterday’s stronger than expected Q2 advance release of 2.89% annualized vs cons 2.7 (albeit with slight skew to 2.8) and above every analyst entry.
- On its own it would imply a 0.28% M/M reading for core PCE in June but we feel it more likely to instead be spread over prior months in the quarter. That has happened a few times recently after past quarterly surprises, providing a partly offsetting market reaction to the prior day’s surprise.
- The current profile sees 0.26% M/M in Apr before what was a surprisingly soft 0.08% M/M in May.
- Non-housing core services remain will also be watched closely for the latest outturn and revisions, having moderated from 0.28% M/M to 0.096% M/M in May.
- The CPI supercore equivalent has seen two particularly weak readings in the latest two months of -0.04% in May and -0.05% in June even if that does reflect some idiosyncratic factors at play.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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