We have taken a closer look at US bilateral......>

US: We have taken a closer look at US bilateral trade by SITC product

classification to get a sense of the economic impact from the slew of new

tariffs being announced. Our analysis shows:

- On this measure, the US has more economic leverage than the EU, Japan and

China.

- Given positive US net trade in automobiles and 'oil seeds and oleaginous

fruits', China has some degree of economic leverage, whereas the EU and Japan

appear to have relatively little.

- Although the largest US trade deficit is with China, the US runs large

deficits in specific goods with the EU and Japan, which makes these economies

vulnerable to an escalating trade war.

- History shows that trade liberalisation is a long and drawn out process, which

is complicated by the politically charged nature of tariffs. As such, even if a

debilitating trade war can be avoided, there could be a legacy cost from the

current trade dispute.

- Details available by email: "Taking Stock of the Trade War", 10 July, 0844BST