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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
Unexpectedly weak flash August Services PMIs - for the Eurozone and UK this morning, echoed in the afternoon by the US - saw peak BoE and ECB hike pricing plummet Wednesday by the most in 1- and 2- months, respectively.
- BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing -16.5bp to 5.87% (62bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Feb 2024): The near 17bp drop in terminal pricing Wednesday represents the biggest single-day fall since Jul 19.
- It's knocked off the advance made over the previous 7 sessions and a full 25bp hike effectively removed from the cycle since the recent closing peak of 6.14% on Aug 17. At this point,, 27bp of hikes are priced for the September MPC, with 46bp cumulatively for the next two meetings (vs 33bp and 54bp yesterday).
- ECB terminal depo Rate pricing -7.1bp to 3.89% (13bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Dec 2023) PMIs brought ECB peak pricing down to 3.89%, the lowest since June 14, with today's drop the single biggest since June 23rd.
- While market pricing continues to point to further tightening, a full 25bp hike is implied to be an increasingly distant prospect and September's meeting is no longer seen as a 50/50 proposition for the next raise (now just 1-in-3 chance), with a cumulative 13bp of hikes in the coming 2 meetings.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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