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Weaker PPI Momentum Continues To Suggest Lower CPI Y/Y Outcomes

JAPAN DATA

Japan's October PPI surprised modestly on the downside. We fell -0.4% in the month, versus flat expected (the prior was -0.2%). In y/y terms the print came in at 0.8% against a 0.9% forecast (and 2.2% prior). At face value, the data suggests more downside momentum to headline CPI in the coming months.

  • In terms of the detail, m/m drags came from petroleum & coal (-5.1%), while other commodities were weaker in terms of iron & steel, along with metals. Agricultural products were also a drag.
  • In y/y terms, the majority of categories saw either softer momentum, or further weakness relative to the September outcome.

Fig 1: Waning PPI Momentum Points To Softer CPI Prints


Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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