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Week Ahead: Busy Central Bank Calendar in Emerging Markets

GLOBAL
  • Singapore: The MAS remains focused on tempering inflation, with the slope of the SGD NEER, band width and mid-point all expected to remain unchanged.
  • Hungary - Following a strong hint from Deputy Governor Virag that the pace of monetary easing will be accelerated at the next MPC meeting, consensus is now skewing toward a 100bp rate cut by the NBH on Tuesday following consecutive 75bp moves at the prior three meetings. Nevertheless, central bank officials will be alert to the deteriorating external risk environment.
  • Colombia: Following a first 25bp cut in the cycle to 13% in December, BanRep is expected to deliver another rate cut on Wednesday, although analysts are currently evenly split between a 25bp and 50bp move. Officials have continued to sound cautious, but the larger-than- expected decline of inflation in December, weak activity and strong FX support the case for an acceleration in the pace of easing over the coming meetings.
  • Chile: Following the larger-than-expected drop of inflation in December and decline of inflation expectations back to target, the BCCh is expected to deliver a larger 100bp policy rate cut to 7.25% on Wednesday. The stabilisation of the peso in recent days, following the resumption of significant dollar sales from the Chilean finance ministry, also supports the case for a larger rate cut, following a 75bp move in December.
  • Brazil: The COPOM is widely expected to deliver another 50bp SELIC rate cut to 11.25% on Wednesday. This would be the fifth successive 50bp cut, and would be consistent with guidance after the December meeting, which signalled further reductions of the same magnitude in the next meetings.
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