Week Ahead for China, Japan, Australia, New Zealand

     SYDNEY (MNI) - BANK OF JAPAN

     There are no public speeches by BOJ board members until Aug. 31, when

Takako Masai speaks to business leaders in Matsuyama City, western Japan. The

BOJ's next policy meeting is scheduled for Sept. 20-21.

     JAPANESE DATA

     On Tuesday, the Cabinet Office releases the Economy Watchers' Survey for

July. In June, the Watchers sentiment index for the current economic climate

posted the third straight month-on-month rise, up 1.4 points at 50.0. The

relatively dry rainy season supported retail sales while new models continued to

draw automobile demand. Solid investment by cable TV networks in 4K and 8K

resolution delivery infrastructure was also reported. The outlook index showed

sentiment regarding the next two to three months also continued to rise in June,

up 0.9 point at 50.5, the third straight gain.

     On Thursday, the Cabinet Office releases June machinery orders, a leading

indicator of business investment. The MNI median forecast: core private-sector

orders, which exclude volatile orders for power generation equipment and ships,

+4.5% on month (forecast range: +1.1 to +7.0%) for the first m/m rise in three

months vs. -3.6% in May.

     Also Thursday, the BOJ releases the July corporate goods price index

(CGPI). Producer prices have been supported by a recent pickup in global energy

and commodity prices, although fuel prices have shown month-on-month drops. The

MNI median forecasts: +2.3% y/y vs. +2.1% in June; +0.2% m/m vs. unchanged in

June.

     JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BONDS

     Japanese financial markets are closed Friday for the Mountain Day public

holiday.

     Downward pressure on Japanese government bond yields may increase

temporarily, depending on developments in overseas markets. But a sharp drop in

JGB yields is unlikely as investors stand ready to take profits on higher

prices. JGBs are supported by the BOJ's outright bond purchase operations, which

are expected Wednesday and Thursday.

     The 10-year JGB yield is seen moving between 0.055% and 0.080% this week

against the bank's target of around zero. The Ministry of Finance will auction

Y800 billion of 30-year bonds and Y2.6 trillion of six-month Treasury discount

bills Tuesday and Y4.4 trillion of three-month Treasury discount bills Thursday.

     CHINA

     On Monday, the People's Bank of China is due to release foreign exchange

reserves data for July, time uncertain. Reserves increased $3.22 billion to

$3.0567 trillion in June, the fifth consecutive monthly increase but the lowest

monthly growth since August 2014.

     On Tuesday, July trade data are expected to be released in the morning.

Imports grew 17.5% year-over-year, according to the median forecast of an MNI

survey, compared with 17.2% growth in June. Exports grew 10.8% y/y, according to

MNI survey, slowing from 11.3% growth in June. The trade surplus is estimated to

have risen to $46.6 billion from $42.8 billion.

     On Wednesday, the National Bureau of Statistics is due to release the

consumer and producer price indexes for July, with both expected to rise

slightly. The CPI is expected to accelerate slightly to 1.6% in July from 1.5%

y/y in June, according to the median of an MNI survey. The PPI will rise to a

5.6% rate from 5.5% the month before.

     Sometime between Thursday, August 10 and Tuesday, August 15 the PBOC is

expected to release data on new bank lending and money supply growth for July.

The M2 money supply growth rate is projected to have accelerated slightly to

9.5% from the all-time-low rate of 9.4% in June. New loan growth last month is

seen slowing to CNY800 billion, only half the CNY1.54 trillion gain in June,

while total social financing likely increased CNY1.075 trillion, well below the

CNY1.78 trillion rise the month before, according to the median forecast of the

MNI survey.

     AUSTRALIA

     It's a busy week where the highlight is the RBA's cash rate decision on

Tuesday, followed by full Statement on Monetary Policy three days later.

     Monday begins with data on private sector credit for June published by the

RBA where MNI median forecast is for 0.4% m/m rise, the same pace as May. Of

more interest is the data on housing credit where investor mortgages are slowing

but owner-occupier mortgages have been showing a slight acceleration.

     On Tuesday is AI Group's performance of manufacturing index for July which

is expected to show another month of expansion (last 55.0). There's also ANZ-Roy

Morgan's weekly consumer confidence data, followed by monthly house price index

by Core-Logic where expectation is for around 1.7% m/m increase in July compared

with +1.8% for June. In the afternoon is RBA's cash rate decision where the

unanimous view of both economists and market is for the rate to be left

unchanged at 1.5%. There will be increased focus on the statement this time

given the recent appreciation in the exchange rate. Later in the afternoon is

index on commodity prices for July published by the RBA (last -4.3%). 

     On Wednesday is dwelling approvals data for June where MNI median forecast

is for 1.5% m/m rise, a part-rebound from a 5.6% fall in May. 

     On Thursday AI Group publishes performance of services index for July which

is also expected to show the expansion continuing (last 54.8). Later Thursday is

international trade data for June where MNI median forecast is for a surplus of

A$1.7 billion which is lower than a surplus of A$2.5 billion for May.

     On Friday the RBA publishes quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy which

will be keenly watched for any change in forecasts on growth and inflation given

assumption of market pricing for cash rate hike and recent rise in the exchange

rate. Market will also be looking for more commentary on the currency. Also

Friday is retail sales data for June where MNI median forecast is for a small

0.1% m/m rise in sales, slowing from a 0.6% growth in May. Retail sales for Q2

will be also be published which is expected to show a 1.3% q/q rise, a sharp

acceleration from just 0.1% in Q1.

     RBA

     Data during the week includes private sector credit, RBA's cash rate

decision, index of commodity prices and quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy.

     NEW ZEALAND

     The highlight of the week is labor market statistics for Q2 due on

Wednesday. MNI median forecast is for 0.9% q/q gain in employment but also a

rise in the labor participation rate to a record high of 70.7% which is expected

to keep jobless rate unchanged at 4.9%. Labor cost index is expected to rise

0.4% q/q in Q2, the same pace as Q1.

     Other data releases during the week include building consents for June on

Monday which is expected to show a decline after 7.0% m/m rise in May. Also

Monday is ANZ's monthly business survey which is expected to show both

confidence and activity outlook at elevated levels.

     RBNZ

     No major data or event is due from the RBNZ

--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com