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Weekly Gains Trimmed


Brent crude is slightly below NY closing levels currently, last around $84.35. Ranges have been tight today, and we remain comfortably above the Thursday session low of $83/bbl. Beyond that is lows at the start of the week close to $79/bbl. The 20-day and 50-day EMAs are nearby, but a move above the 100-day ($87.42/bbl) is likely required to re-energize the bulls. For WTI, we currently sit near $77.80/bbl.

  • A more cautious tone in the equity space has weighed on broader risk appetite, but oil is still tracking higher for week, Brent +5.5% at this stage. This has arguably been more supply than demand driven though.
  • Goldman Sachs has lowered its brent crude forecasts, $6 lower for Q1 ($92/bbl, versus $98/bbl prior), while the bank expects brent to end the year at $100/bbl (-$5 revision). The forecast changes reflect softening supply-demand fundamentals (more supply from US & Russia, less demand from US & EU).
  • Looking ahead, next Tuesday delivers the OPEC monthly oil report (along with US CPI). On Wednesday an IEA-IEF-OPEC symposium will take place in Riyadh. The IEA monthly oil report will also print.

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