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Westpac Expects A Hawkish RBNZ Hold Next Week

RBNZ

The local bank looks for a hawkish RBNZ hold at next week's policy meeting, see below for more details.

Westpac: "We expect the RBNZ will leave the OCR unchanged at 5.5% at its February policy meeting.

  • The RBNZ’s short term forward profile for the OCR is likely to be little changed and continue to suggest a chance of a further lift in the OCR perhaps at the May Monetary Policy Statement.
  • The longer-term OCR profile may be revised up – especially if another adjustment of the neutral OCR occurs.
  • More hawkish scenarios are realistic – but we see a 25bp tightening as just a 25% probability.
  • Future data on non-tradables inflation, the labour market, the housing market and the Budget will be key in making the case for any further tightening – but in May, not at the current time.
  • We continue to expect the OCR to remain at 5.5% until early 2025."
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