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AUSTRALIA DATA: Westpac Lead Index Pointing To Recovery

AUSTRALIA DATA
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The Westpac leading index for November rose 0.05% m/m to be up 0.3% 6m/6m annualised after +0.17% and 0.2% respectively in October. Westpac observes that the 6-month rate leads detrended growth by three to nine months and so the index is signalling some recovery around mid-year but with growth remaining soft. Westpac is forecasting growth to pick up to 2.2% y/y by end-2025 from Q3’s 0.8%.

  • The leading index reported a rise in six of its eight components in November concentrated in the domestic economy. There were improvements in consumer confidence, the assessment of unemployment expectations, dwelling approvals and Australian equities. While commodity prices and US IP detracted. Commodity prices could see further falls next year.
  • With the labour market still looking tight and significant uncertainty over the productivity outlook, Westpac continues to expect the first RBA rate cut in May.

Australia Westpac lead indicator 6/6m ann % vs GDP 2q/2q%

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The Westpac leading index for November rose 0.05% m/m to be up 0.3% 6m/6m annualised after +0.17% and 0.2% respectively in October. Westpac observes that the 6-month rate leads detrended growth by three to nine months and so the index is signalling some recovery around mid-year but with growth remaining soft. Westpac is forecasting growth to pick up to 2.2% y/y by end-2025 from Q3’s 0.8%.

  • The leading index reported a rise in six of its eight components in November concentrated in the domestic economy. There were improvements in consumer confidence, the assessment of unemployment expectations, dwelling approvals and Australian equities. While commodity prices and US IP detracted. Commodity prices could see further falls next year.
  • With the labour market still looking tight and significant uncertainty over the productivity outlook, Westpac continues to expect the first RBA rate cut in May.

Australia Westpac lead indicator 6/6m ann % vs GDP 2q/2q%

Keep reading...Show less