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Westpac Leading Index Signals Below Trend H1 2023 Growth

AUSTRALIA DATA

The Westpac-MI leading index moderated further in December falling 0.13% m/m after -0.16% the previous month. This left the 6-month annualised growth rate slightly lower at -0.97%, the fifth consecutive negative month. It peaked in March 2022 and since it leads activity relative to trend by 3 to 9 months, we should see evidence of slowing growth soon. Westpac notes that there is a large degree of uncertainty, especially regarding consumers and the degree of savings.

  • The yield spread and commodity prices have driven the move in the lead indicator since its peak. Dwelling approvals and US IP have also contributed while equities and consumer expectations have been supportive.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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