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AUSSIE: Westpac suggest that the AUD is finding support from "the domestic
growth and interest rate outlook and perhaps inbound direct investment. It is
also worth noting that the pipeline of publicly announced merger and acquisition
inflow to Australia is close to 2-year highs. Any AUD demand from such deals
will not be derailed by e.g. Italian political wrangling.
- The bank goes onto note that the "AUD's domestic story is also broadly
positive - at least in relative terms, which is of course what matters for
currencies. The RBA has made clear that it expects the next move in the cash
rate to be up, so long as its forecasts are broadly accurate. They should be
pleased with Q1 GDP data on Wed. Today's capex survey showed a stronger than
expected 2.5%qtr rise in Q1 plant & equipment spending, causing our economics
team to raise its GDP forecast to 0.9%qtr, 2.8%yr. Even if there are some
downside surprises in the partial data Mon and Tue that weigh on the actual GDP
outcome, Australia should still report a faster quarterly growth pace in Q1 than
e.g. the US, UK, Eurozone and Japan. Global volatility may persist, but so too
could AUD outperformance on crosses."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |