MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY8 Bln Via OMO Fri; Rates Unchanged

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1196 Fri; -1.41% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY10 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1196 FRI VS 7.1192

MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, June 20

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY18 Bln Via OMO Thu; Rates Unchanged

Japan May Core CPI +2.5% Y/Y; Energy Price Surges

MNI BRIEF: Japan May Core CPI Rises 2.5% Vs. April +2.2%

MNI JAPAN MAY CORE CPI +2.5% Y/Y; APRIL +2.2%

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

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What's priced in?

ECB
  • In terms of market pricing for the ECB, there is currently around 49bp priced for the March meeting, 85bp cumulatively by May, 110bp by June, 126bp by July and then a peak of 137bp by December.
  • So effectively to get to the 126bp by July the ECB would need to deliver 50bp in March and then one 50bp and two 25bp in the May/June/July meetings.
  • As we noted yesterday, two and a half weeks ago we were looking at a terminal rate around 100bp higher than now by September before the curve inverted. So we are effectively now pricing in 1.5 more 25bp hikes than previously this year, and with no curve inversion until 2024.
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