What to watch (1/2): Vote and Guidance

• The March MPC meeting will be in focus at midday GMT / 8:00ET / 13:00CET. The policy decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Minutes will all be released simultaneously. Note that as this is a non-MPR meeting there will be no press conference today.
• The MNI Markets team, and the majority of analysts, expect an unchanged vote (1-6-2), although we do note the possibility that either Haskel, and also possibly Mann, could vote for unchanged Bank Rate at this meeting. We also expect no material change to guidance. These are the two main areas of market focus today.
• For the vote, the main risk is that Haskel votes with the majority (resulting in 1-7-1) which is expected by a sizable minority of analysts. If Mann joins him, there will be a larger market reaction. While if there are any additional votes for a cut (we see Breeden or Ramsden with around a 10% probability) there would likely be an even larger market reaction.
• Assuming no change to the guidance and the vote, we would expect to see a bit of a relief move in markets, with markets pulling back in pricing for June (and for 2024 as a whole).

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