MNI INTERVIEW2: Riksbank Sales Boosting Liquidity - Debt Head

MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, Dec 5

MNI: UK NOVEMBER CONSTRUCTION PMI 55.2 (FCST: 53.5); OCT 54.3

MNI BRIEF: China Construction Output Slows In November

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY153 Bln via OMO Thursday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1879 Thurs; -1.82% Y/Y

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Austria, UK Auction on Tuesday

MNI: EUROZONE OCT RETAIL SALES -0.5% M/M, +1.9% Y/Y

MNI: EUROZONE NOVEMBER CONSTRUCTION PMI 42.7 OCT 43.0

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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What to watch (2/2)

MARKET INSIGHT
  • For the Bank of England (12:00BST / 13:00CET decision/Minutes/MPR, 12:30BST press conference), a 25bp hike was unanimously expected by analysts in the 22 previews that we read through, with markets fully pricing 25bp with around a 20% probability of a 50bp hike. The focus will be on the vote split (which could easily be a 3 way split), the forward guidance (will the time contingency of further moderate hikes be "in the coming months"?) and how far below 2% will the inflation forecasts be at market rates in 2/3 years time? There is also expected to be some further commentary on gilt sales. We wouldn't expect an announcement on the timing/pace at this meeting, but we wouldn't rule it out. For the full MNI BOE Preview click here.
  • Against this backdrop ECB Chief Economist Lane is also due to speak on the euro area economic outlook at 11:30BST / 12:30CET at a Bruegel event. His comments will be watched closely as he is seen as one of the most influential members of the Executive Board, and if he guides towards a July hike, we are likely to see markets price in a higher probability than the round 2/3 probability priced in now.
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