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What to watch

MARKET INSIGHT

It was a mixed APAC session but we go into the European open with both core FI and equities both lower.

  • The Accounts of the April ECB meeting will be released at 12:30BST / 13:30CET. Although a little dated now, these will be closely watched in light of recent comments from policymakers. Notably the Netherlands' Knot left the door open to a 75bp hike while Finland's Rehn said yesterday that it was important to "relatively quickly" move away from negative rates and suggested that the first hike could occur in the summer. Note that the an MNI sources piece yesterday played down the liklihood of any 50bp hike and stated that a majority of ECB policymakers back at least two 25bp hikes this year with some leaving the door open to three. For the full piece click here for part 1 and here for part 2.
  • We will hear from ECB's de Guindos, de Cos, Verstager and Holzmann later in the session.
  • In terms of US events, the calendar is relatively light with the Philly Fed, jobless claims and existing home sales the highlights. Fed's Kashkari is due to speak on inflation, but after the European session.
  • Riksbank's Floden is also due to speak today on monpol. His speech may be interesting as he said in the Minutes that he could have supported a more gradual repo rate path. Since those comments inflation has surprised to the upside and has come in between the central and adverse paths so it will be interesting to see how his views have been impacted.

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