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OIL

OPEC Crude Exports Slip in September

REFINING

Asian Refiners Have Capacity to Increase Runs

US TSY OPTIONS

More Put Spd Buying, Unwinds

CROSS ASSET

More broad base unwind in USD

OIL PRODUCTS

Diesel Higher Before Updated EIA Stock Data

USDCAD TECHS

Bullish Trend Conditions

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What to watch

MARKET INSIGHT
  • The highlight of the day will be the ECB policy decision and press conference. Note that these will take place at the new time of 13:15BST / 14:15CET for the policy decision and statement with the press conference beginning at 13:30BST / 14:30CET. At the time we wrote our ECB preview the probability of a 25bp hike this week was looking pretty high based on public ECB communication. However, we also noted that a 50bp hike could note be ruled out and various sources pieces released through this week have shifted market pricing and increased the probability of a 50bp hike. A sufficiently large (likely limitless) and flexible anti-fragmentation tool is also expected to be announced at the meeting. Delaying the announcement would be risky for spreads given the previous market disappointment at the unscheduled mid-June meeting for discussing fragmentation risks. For the full MNI ECB preview click here.
  • Elsewhere there will be continued focus on Italian politics after three coalition partners did not support Draghi in yesterday's confidence vote. Draghi is expected to resign today and probably head an interim technocrat government until either a new coalition can be formed or (more likely) new elections are held.
  • Elsewhere we have US jobless claims data as well as the Philly Fed and leading index.
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  • The highlight of the day will be the ECB policy decision and press conference. Note that these will take place at the new time of 13:15BST / 14:15CET for the policy decision and statement with the press conference beginning at 13:30BST / 14:30CET. At the time we wrote our ECB preview the probability of a 25bp hike this week was looking pretty high based on public ECB communication. However, we also noted that a 50bp hike could note be ruled out and various sources pieces released through this week have shifted market pricing and increased the probability of a 50bp hike. A sufficiently large (likely limitless) and flexible anti-fragmentation tool is also expected to be announced at the meeting. Delaying the announcement would be risky for spreads given the previous market disappointment at the unscheduled mid-June meeting for discussing fragmentation risks. For the full MNI ECB preview click here.
  • Elsewhere there will be continued focus on Italian politics after three coalition partners did not support Draghi in yesterday's confidence vote. Draghi is expected to resign today and probably head an interim technocrat government until either a new coalition can be formed or (more likely) new elections are held.
  • Elsewhere we have US jobless claims data as well as the Philly Fed and leading index.