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MARKET INSIGHT
  • There is little doubt that the highlight of today's session will be the FOMC decision (due 19:00BST / 20:00CET) and Chair Powell's press conference (beginning 19:30BST / 20:30CET). Markets are pricing in around 78bp for today's meeting and the sell-side economist consensus is also firm around 75bp and so the key immediate question is the FOMC’s thinking on the magnitude of the next hike. With this in mind, there is likely to be more focus on the state and Powell's presser than the decision itself. A reduction in the size of hikes is likely starting in September, especially given weakening economic data and the ongoing moderation in inflation expectations. But for now the FOMC is likely to be non-committal, apart from saying it anticipates ongoing hikes are appropriate. For the full MNI Fed Preview see here.
  • In terms of data today, the morning session sees the focus on confidence data across the Eurozone after the disappointing German consumer confidence hit we have already seen. These data may affect sentiment somewhat but are unlikely to immediately move markets on release.
  • More importantly we will receive US durable goods orders as well as trade, inventory and pending home sales data.
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