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What to watch

MARKET INSIGHT
  • It will be a busy data day today. Bunds have already moved higher this morning after the NRW state CPI came in at 0.3%M/M - lower than the 0.4%M/M expectation for the national print that is due this afternoon. Throughout this morning we will have a number of other German states report CPI as well as Spanish CPI (due at 8:00BST / 9:00CET). These will all be viewed through the lens of markets pricing in 67bp for the September ECB meeting after the Reuters sources piece last week suggested a 75bp hike was under discussion, some hawkish comments from Schnabel at the weekend and Lane leaving the options for any policy action open in this speech yesterday.
  • As well as the German and Spanish inflation data due today (and French, Italian and Eurozone tomorrow) markets will continue to pay attention to any updates on EU plans to cap or at deal with energy prices. An extraordinary summit is being held the day after the upcoming ECB policy announcement, which may hold the ECB off from a larger-than-75bp hike in the hope a deal can be agreed to stop inflation reaching even more extreme levels.
  • Elsewhere today we also receive Swedish confidence data, Spanish retail sales, Italian industrial sales, UK money supply/credit data, European confidence data and US conference Board / JOLTS / housing data.
  • In addition we will have comments from ECB's Vasle, Holzmann, Stournaras, Wunsch, the Fed's Barkin and Williams and the Riksbank's Ingves.
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