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UK
  • The UK political outlook is looking increasingly cloudy. Chancellor Kwarteng is returning to the UK from Washington earlier than expected with rampant media speculation that after crunch talks with PM Truss further tax cuts that were announced as parts of the "Growth Plan" will be reversed. There is no likely timeline suggested for any announcements yet, but the Bank of England's bond purchases are due to end today. The government may therefore look to rush out an announcement either today or over the weekend ahead of markets opening on Monday.
  • However, the very question of whether Truss/ Kwarteng will remain in office continues to linger. Betting markets now see the odds of Rishi Sunak being the next PM around the same level as those of Labour leader Kier Starmer (with other Conservative candidates such as Penny Mordaunt among the contenders).
  • Note that at 8:00BST the Bank of England will announce the size of the final scheduled gilt purchase operations. A maximum size of GBP5bln is expected for both linkers and long-dated conventionals, with upside risks of GBP10bln per operation.
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