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Late SOFR/Eurodollar/Treasury Option Roundup

EURJPY TECHS

Holding On To Its Recent Gains

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What to watch

OUTLOOK
  • Today's calendar is relatively subdued and with the Fed already in its blackout period and no BOE speeches scheduled there will be even more focus on today's ECB speakers. We are due to head from Vujcic, Visco, Panetta and Holzmann during the European trading session while are also due to hear from Lagarde at 17:45GMT / 18:45CET. Knot will join Vujcic and Lagarde as speakers tomorrow.
  • The Bank of Canada is due to release its rate decision on Wednesday with the majority of analysts expecting a 25bp hike to 4.50% (markets price in 19bp at writing). Note that our policy team published an interview with the Canadian Chamber of Commerce chief economist Stephen Tapp in which he said he expects the BoC to hike 25bp then pause and that a cut late this year can't be ruled out. For the full interview see here.
  • Looking ahead to this week's data in the Eurozone the highlights will be flash PMI data due for release tomorrow as well as the German IFO on Wednesday.
  • In the UK in addition to tomorrow's flash PMI data we will also receive the first UK PPI data to be released since November on Wednesday (with two months due for release after the ONS found errors in the previous data).
  • US data will be backloaded with week with the first print of Q4 GDP due for release on Thursday alongside December durable goods orders as well as personal income / spending data on Friday.
  • In Sweden, the Prospera inflation expectations survey due is for release on Tuesday ahead of the Economic Tendency survey on Thursday and retail sales on Friday.
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  • Today's calendar is relatively subdued and with the Fed already in its blackout period and no BOE speeches scheduled there will be even more focus on today's ECB speakers. We are due to head from Vujcic, Visco, Panetta and Holzmann during the European trading session while are also due to hear from Lagarde at 17:45GMT / 18:45CET. Knot will join Vujcic and Lagarde as speakers tomorrow.
  • The Bank of Canada is due to release its rate decision on Wednesday with the majority of analysts expecting a 25bp hike to 4.50% (markets price in 19bp at writing). Note that our policy team published an interview with the Canadian Chamber of Commerce chief economist Stephen Tapp in which he said he expects the BoC to hike 25bp then pause and that a cut late this year can't be ruled out. For the full interview see here.
  • Looking ahead to this week's data in the Eurozone the highlights will be flash PMI data due for release tomorrow as well as the German IFO on Wednesday.
  • In the UK in addition to tomorrow's flash PMI data we will also receive the first UK PPI data to be released since November on Wednesday (with two months due for release after the ONS found errors in the previous data).
  • US data will be backloaded with week with the first print of Q4 GDP due for release on Thursday alongside December durable goods orders as well as personal income / spending data on Friday.
  • In Sweden, the Prospera inflation expectations survey due is for release on Tuesday ahead of the Economic Tendency survey on Thursday and retail sales on Friday.